Research

Embedded Risk Analytics builds on a single claim, that an agent stays coherent only while its capacity covers the load it carries.

The claim

Coherence from a derived boundary

C ≥ Hext + Bρ

We write capacity as at least the exogenous load plus the reflexive burden, the cost an agent pays to stay consistent with what it already committed. When the load crosses that boundary, the agent's coherence degrades. The boundary follows from the information the agent must carry, so it holds independent of the model, and the read and the repair both measure against it.

The foundation

The foundation

Records, reflexive modeling, and the conditions for stable physical histories

The preprint sets out the information-theoretic model behind the program. It derives the feasibility inequality and shows how reflexive burden grows as a system nears its stability limit.

Papers

Whitepapers and position papers

Predicting coherence failure in long-horizon AI agents

The program whitepaper, which sets the feasibility inequality that separates task difficulty from reflexive burden.

Jev and the need for deterministic checks in long-horizon harnesses

A position paper on Jev as a verifier for long-horizon agents. Claim readers built on Jev missed silently dropped commitments, and a deterministic committed-state check caught them.

An unobservable off switch for long-horizon AI agents

A position paper on metering an agent's re-grounding capacity and triggering on trajectory state a dashboard cannot see.

The rise of stateless agents

Stateless swarms hold reflexive burden down, and they stop backing their conclusions under load, with a sharp failure boundary appearing once memory returns.

Context efficiency, the second lever for coherence in long-horizon agents

A managed agent held coherence at roughly 16,680 tokens per trajectory against 113,636 for a raw-window baseline, as the paper reports.

Experiments

Findings from controlled experiments

Reading premature completion reports in agents writing to a shared store

On NVIDIA OpenShell's multi-agent notepad example, six Codex workers on gpt-4o-mini reported writes as done after a tool result that said still running, and some of those writes never landed. Right Rudder's read flagged each report as it was made, and its repair in front of each report sent the workers back to their writes, with reported figures lacking a landed source falling from thirty-five to three across fifteen workers in four runs.

Reading carryover across patients in a clinical agent

On the Synthetic Hospital benchmark, a diagnosis agent working eight patients per session carried diagnoses from earlier patients into later ones, and a repair in front of the submission step removed them and lifted the benchmark score by 0.06 to 0.10 on GPT 5.6 Luna and DeepSeek V3.2.

The real cost of agent memory

Recovering a single committed fact cost 155 times a deterministic lookup on Amazon Bedrock and 85 times on Microsoft Azure, as measured in the study.

Reasoning is the default modality, and it breaks naive agent measurement

Four of five vendors' flagship endpoints reason by default, which breaks measurement once the token budget runs tight.

Coherence risk in long-horizon coding agents

The read separated steps that contradict a prior commit from steps that are simply hard.

We add new writing here as it publishes.